Friday, March 16, 2012
Thomas The Tank Engine Kid Size Rolling Backpack
Thomas The Tank Engine Kid Size Rolling Backpack
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Tags : Thomas, The, Tank, Engine, Kid
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The 2009-2014 Outlook for Children Backpacks on Wheels in Greater China
The 2009-2014 Outlook for Children Backpacks on Wheels in Greater China
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WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if Greater China is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The "market" is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).The latent demand for children's backpacks on wheels in Greater China is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a market.For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of "unit quantities", only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends). If inflation rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. In fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be latent demand for children's backpacks on wheels at the aggregate level. Product and service offerings, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.THE METHODOLOGYIn order to estimate the latent demand for children's backpacks on wheels across the regions and cites of Greater China, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a region, city, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question. Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across geographies, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data). This type of consumption function is shown as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant. Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related is interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for children's backpacks on wheels across the regions and cities of Greater China. The smallest cities have few inhabitants. I assume that all of these cities fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these states having wealth; current income dominates the latent demand for children's backpacks on wheels. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for children's backpacks on wheels in Greater China. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories and geographic locations, not just children's backpacks on wheels in Greater China.Step 1. Product Definition and Data CollectionAny study of latent demand requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key indicators are more likely to reflect efficiency than others. These indicators are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency". High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e. some cities have high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income). Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Official Chinese Agencies, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic...
--This text refers to the
Digital
edition.
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Tags : The, 20092014, Outlook, for, Children
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Disney Minnie Mouse Rolling Backpack -Kid Size Wheeled Backpack
Disney Minnie Mouse Rolling Backpack -Kid Size Wheeled Backpack
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Disney Minnie Mouse Rolling Backpack -Kid Size Wheeled Backpack
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Tags : Disney, Minnie, Mouse, Rolling, Backpack
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Sherpa on Wheel Dog Carrier Bag Large Black
Sherpa on Wheel Dog Carrier Bag Large Black
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Takes the weight off your shoulders. Sherpa-on-wheels utilizes easy-glide recessed wheels for smooth, quiet, steady motion. Detachable handle with padded grip for extra comfort, can also be used as a shoulder strap. Carry it or pull it. It's great either way. Sherpa Pet Carriers on Wheels Feature: Stylish light-weight design. Fashioned from black quilted nylon. New travel bed tray slides in and out and includes a soft, cozy, washable faux lambskin liner. Mesh panels and roll-up flaps on three sides for ventilation and privacy. Two entrances-front opening and U-shaped top zipper. Brass hardware. Inside leash ring. Extra large rear zippered pocket for all essentials. Photo ID tag. Fits comfortably under cabin seat. Approved on most major airlines (restrictions for air travel are dictated by each airline company). Washable faux lambskin liner in "travel tray" (bed in bag). On wheel dog carrier bag. Mesh panels for ventilation. Top and side entry. Roll up flaps on three sides for ultimate privacy for your pet. Convenient, detachable, adjustable pull strap seconds as a shoulder strap. Large accessory pocket. A quilted texture for the ultimate fashion statement. Carrier rolls flat on four wheels, no tilting, to provide your pet with a comfortable travel experience. Available in black color and large size. Pets up to 22-pound. Measures 20-inch length by 12-inch width by 11-1/2-inch height.
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Tags : Sherpa, on, Wheel, Dog, Carrier
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Targus CityGear Rolling Travel Case for 17 Inch Notebooks TCG717 (Black with Yellow)
Targus CityGear Rolling Travel Case for 17 Inch Notebooks TCG717 (Black with Yellow)
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Travel lighter with the Targus Rolling Travel Notebook Case. The unique design allows you to comfortably store your large-size notebook in addition to clothing and personal accessories. A special overnight luggage section provides enough room for a change of clothes, perfect for short business trips. All necessary notebook case features abound including a zip-down workstation with storage for your mobile accessories, pen loops, key clip and business card holder. The smooth-rolling wheels and telescoping handle make this rolling case a perfect companion for the businessperson on the go.
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Tags : Targus, CityGear, Rolling, Travel, Case
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Guerrilla Painter Rolling Plein Air Packer
Guerrilla Painter Rolling Plein Air Packer
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Perfect multi-function plein air tote on stout oversize wheels with a handle that extends a full 40-inch for pulling along. This bag accommodates just about everything a Guerrilla Painter would want to take along on an extended outing or trip. Features a main zippered compartment measuring 14-inch by 15-1/4-inch by 7-inch with a removable Velcro divider - perfect for the 8 by 10 Cigar Box, 9 by 12 Guerrilla Box or Guerrilla Medium French Resistance Pochade Numerous additional pouches will hold a water bottle, cell phone, brushes, etc. Lower compartment measures 14-inch by 7-inch by 2-inch holds brushes, palette, pastels or...? Outer Velcro flap for quick access to a sketchbook. Back and side straps will secure tripod, stool, jacket etc. Roll along or carry with handle, shoulder strap or backpack straps - all included. When used as a backpack, a waist strap provides extra stability. Constructed of heavy nylon.
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Tags : Guerrilla, Painter, Rolling, Plein, Air
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High Sierra Freewheel Wheeled Book Bag Backpack
High Sierra Freewheel Wheeled Book Bag Backpack
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The High Sierra Freewheel book bag makes traveling with a full load a breeze. Designed with two inline-style wheels and a telescoping handle, it allows you to cruise smoothly from place to place, and a Cushion Zone padded computer sleeve holds most laptops up to 17 inches. Features: Large, front-load main compartment Cushion Zone padded computer sleeve holds laptops up to 17 inches Large, zippered front compartment has organizer with media pocket, multiple open pockets, and key fob Zippered accessory compartment has a headphone port Smooth-rolling, corner-mounted wheels Single-tube telescoping handle stows inside a protective zippered compartment Contoured, adjustable Vapel mesh padded shoulder straps tuck away inside padded back panel Open side pocket holds water bottle or other gear Triangle clip to attach lock or other accessories Corner guards and rub rails protect bag from abrasion Comfortable Vapel mesh padded grab handle Reflective accents for night safety Specifications: Measures 13.5-by-20.5-by-eight inches (W x H x D) Constructed of Duralite Ripstop, Waffle Weave, and 600-denier Duralite materials Warranty High Sierra products include a limited lifetime manufacturer's warranty against defects in materials and workmanship, with the exception of wheeled products, which include a limited five-year manufacturer's warranty. About High Sierra Founded in 1978 as H. Bernbaum Import & Export Company by Harry Bernbaum and Hank Bernbaum, High Sierra Sport Company has grown to become the tenth largest outdoor company in the United States, and for over 30 years has been a family-owned organization committed to producing thoughtfully innovative bags and luggage that appeal to the active lifestyle and outdoor consumer. Today, High Sierra Sport Company is the official supplier of bags to the U.S. Ski and Snowboarding teams, and its memberships include the Outdoor Industry Association (OIA), SnowSports Industries America (SIA), and the Travel Goods Association (TGA). Specializing in adventure travel, High Sierra's dedication to function, design, and quality is reflected through its product line.
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Tags : High, Sierra, Freewheel, Wheeled, Book
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